DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.
Food security is expected to deteriorate in parts of northern and central Somalia from February to June 2019. Many northern and central agropastoral and pastoral livelihoods will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until May/June, when the onset of Gu rainfall leads to improved livestock productivity, livestock births increasing saleable animals, and increased agricultural labor opportunities. In the absence of assistance, food security outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in central Addun Pastoral, Northern Inland Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral of Sanaag, northwestern Hawd Pastoral, Southern Agropastoral of Hiiran and Bay-Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones. More than 1.5 million people will face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) through June 2019. An additional 3.4 million people are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), which brings the total number of people in Somalia facing acute food insecurity through mid-2019 to 4.9 million.
Those facing acute food security Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse urgently need humanitarian assistance through June 2019 to prevent further deterioration. Livelihood support is also required for people categorized as Stressed or worse (IPC Phase 2 or higher).
Urgent treatment and nutrition support is required for an estimated 903 100 children under the age of five years (total acute malnutrition burden) who will likely face acute malnutrition through December 2019, including 138 200 who are likely to be severely malnourished. Integrated support interventions should be sustained to support recovery and prevent deterioration in the nutrition situation.
Results from 38 separate nutrition surveys conducted by FSNAU and partners in November and December 2018 indicate the overall nutrition situation in Somalia has improved due to better food security conditions, reduced outbreak of disease, and sustained humanitarian interventions. At the national level, acute malnutrition has remained stable due to relatively low morbidity and sustained nutrition and health related interventions and support. The median prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) has remained Serious (10–14.9%) over the past three seasons (12.6% in 2018 Deyr, 14.0% in 2018 Gu and 13.8% in 2017 Deyr). However, a high level of acute malnutrition persists across Somalia due to a combination of factors, including food insecurity, high morbidity, low immunization and vitamin-A supplementation, and poor care practices. A Critical (≥4-5.6%) prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) was observed in Bakool Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone. The Crude Death Rate (CDR) was Critical (1 to <2/10 000/day) in West Golis Pastoral and northwestern Hawd Pastoral, while morbidity rates remain high (>20%) in half of the populations surveyed. The nutrition situation in Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone of Bay and Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Hiiran are expected to deteriorate from Serious to Critical from February to April 2019.