DISCLAIMER: pelase note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis referring to the same period. Please click here.

• Following the above-normal long rains across the country, significant improvement in food and nutrition situation was realized as evidenced by proportion of households with acceptable food consumption scores as result of improved crop and livestock productivity.
• Considering many of the arid counties experienced severe drought in the last three seasons, recovery has been slow and therefore there exists small proportion of households with poor food consumption gaps.
• Consequently, the 2018 long rains assessment established that approximately 700,000 people in arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties are facing acute food insecurity and need immediate humanitarian assistance. This figure is significantly lower than the 2.55 million identified in February 2018 after the last short rains assessment.
• Significant improvement in nutrition status for children under five years in most of the counties was realized and attributable to increased household food availability.
• Government interventions and stakeholders contribution in the 23 ASAL counties in cushioning food insecure households through provision of both food and non-food assistance across sectors has further strengthened recovery. 

The following factors are the driving attributes to the current food and nutrition security situation:

• Rainfall - The seasonal rainfall totals recorded during the 2018 March-April-May (MAM) long rains were one of the highest in about 70 years with most counties receiving rainfall amounts exceeding 350 percent of normal. The enhanced rainfall led to flooding which caused 150 deaths, displacement of over 350,000 people, crop losses, and significant damage to property and infrastructure along with disruption of services. However, positive impact was realized in both forage regeneration and optimal recharge of water sources.
• Human and livestock disease outbreaks - Outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Baringo, Meru North, Tana River and Kilifi Counties. RVF led to both human and livestock fatalities.
• Fall Armyworm infestation - Mainly experienced in the mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones where the pest caused substantial destruction to the maize crop and subsequent reduction in maize production.
• Human-wildlife conflicts - This was evident in Taita Taveta, Meru North, Samburu, Laikipia and Tana River.
• Insecurity - Terror related incidences were reported in Lamu, Isiolo, Mandera and Moyale in Marsabit.
• Locust invasion - Largely experienced in Marsabit and Turkana with the pest invading both pasture and browse. 

Disclaimer: There are no population estimates for this analysis.

Recommendations for immediate response:

Government and partners to sustain on-going efforts and prioritize the most affected populations between the period August 2018 to January 2019, by:

• Social protection to an estimated 700,000 food insecure people in need of assistance with interventions focused on reducing malnutrition and increasing resilience of the affected communities.
• Supplementary feeding for children 6 to 59 months and pregnant and lactating women in the most affected counties.
• Provision of farm inputs, support to livestock disease control, provision of livestock feeds, water infrastructure maintenance, repair and spare parts for boreholes,  provision of school feeding for both ECDE.
• Crop and livestock insurance schemes to reduce climate related risks to vulnerable populations. 

Recommendations for monitoring:

Key factors to monitor include high malnutrition rates in some ASAL counties, resurgence of Fall Armyworm infestation, locust invasion, insecurity, human and livestock disease outbreaks, human-wildlife conflicts, impact of programmes and interventions and performance of the 2018 October-November-December (OND) short rains. 

The nutrition situation in North Horr and in Turkana South, North and Central sub-counties has improved on the same time last year from Very Critical to Critical. Despite this, levels of acute malnutrition in several counties remain above the emergency threshold (15 percent) for Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM). 

To view the Acute Malnutrition maps for this analysis, please click here.