DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.

Based on 2017 Post Gu season assessment conducted across Somalia in July, an estimated 6.2 million people were acutely food insecure. This includes 3.3 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and an additional 2.9 million people that have been classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

During the projection period from August to December 2017, the number of people that are acutely food insecure will remain 6.2 million. However, there will be only a modest decline in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) from 3.3 million in July to 3.1 million between August and December.

UBRAN AND INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPs)

Nearly 2.2 million people in urban areas across Somalia were acutely food insecure in July, including 33 000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 623 000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 1.5 million people classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). These figures will improve only modestly during the projection period between August and December 2017 to 29 000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 552 000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and over 1.5 million people classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

The food security situation among poor urban households has deteriorated across most regions of Somalia due to several factors: increased influx of drought affected people from rural areas and consequent competition for labor employment, declining incomes, deterioration in the terms of trade between casual labor wages and cereal prices, increases in the cost of minimum expenditure basket (CMEB), reflecting the rising costs of living in urban areas. While drought is the major factor contributing to increases in food prices and increases in CMEB, other locally important factors also include depreciation of the local currency against the U.S. Dollar (central and parts of north) and continued trade disruption (parts of Bakool and Hiran) due to blockade by insurgents although the impact has been moderated by humanitarian assistance.

With very few livelihood assets, limited livelihood opportunities and poor living conditions, IDPs across Somalia remain extremely vulnerable. A majority of them are acutely food insecure. In some IDP settlements such as Baidoa and Mogadishu, where there has been a recent and large-scale influx (new arrivals), food security and nutrition outcomes have continued to deteriorate. IDPs in the main settlements have also been affected by rising food prices and cost of living urban areas.

Expenditure on food represents the largest portion (60-95%) of total household expenditure amongst both IDPs and poor urban households and this makes them vulnerable to food price increases and reductions in income.

Between January and July 2017, there have been moderate increases in CMEB in the following regions: Woqooyi Galbeed (22%), Middle Shabelle (16%) Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Toghdeer (11-12%). In the rest of the regions, CMEB was stable or slightly lower over the same comparison period. However, July 2017 CMEB was higher compared to both July 2016 and the five-year average in most regions of Somalia. Compared to the five-year average, July 2017 CMEB is 20-29 percent higher in the Northwest, 15-27 percent in the northeast, 5-23 percent in central and 15-43 percent in most of the south, with the exception of Middle Juba and Lower Juba remained stable or increased only slightly (0-4%).

Populations in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) are priorities for food security and livelihoods support programming.

Populations in Emergency (IPC 4) deserve special attention given the risk of increased mortality. These are Guban Pastoral, Hawd of northwest, Northern Inland Pastoral of northwest, East Golis of northwest, Addun of central, Southern Agropastoral of Hiran and displaced populations in Dhusamareb (Glagadud), Mogadishu (Banadir), Baidoa (Bay) and Dollo (Hiran) regions.