DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.

According to data from the December post-Deyr assessment, food security and nutrition outcomes have improved in several areas, and fewer households are reporting moderate or severe hunger in Bay Agropastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral. In most livelihood zones and IDP camps, Food Consumption Score (FCS) and Household Hunger Scale (HHS) pointed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, though in a few areas FCS pointed to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Of the 30 SMART surveys conducted between November and December, a ‘Critical’ (15-30%) prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM), as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), was reported in eight areas. This is a notable improvement from the 2016/17 Deyr, when a ‘Critical’ prevalence of GAM (WHZ) was recorded in 13 out of 27 surveys, and the 2017 Gu, when a ‘Critical’ prevalence of GAM (WHZ) was recorded in 20 out of 31 surveys. An estimated 301,000 children between six and 59 months of age are suffering from acute malnutrition, including 48,000 who are severely malnourished. The number of cases of severe acute malnutrition is 32 percent lower than last year, although the need remains high and urgent. 

Food security and nutrition improvements are the result of increased food availability from the Deyr harvest and some milk production, as well as consistent, large-scale humanitarian assistance. Since post-Deyr data collection in December, it is expected that access to milk and food stocks have seasonally declined, though not significantly enough to change food security outcomes. Furthermore, the continuation of humanitarian assistance is supporting similar outcomes as observed in December. 

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes exist in most southern regions, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist in Bay/Bakool Low Potential, Southern Rainfed, and Hiraan Southern Agropastoral livelihood zones. More severe outcomes exist in central and northern areas, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is widespread and humanitarian assistance is preventing more extreme outcomes in wide areas of Guban, Addun, Hawd, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones. 

DISCLAIMER: No specific recommendations were included in the February 2018 Food Security Outlook for Somalia. For more information, please download the full outlook.