• During the 2017 post-harvest season, 33% of the population were classified in “Crisis” (IPC Phase 3) and “Emergency” (IPC Phase 4) in the North Eastern Region covering the provinces of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar. 
  
  
• Kohistan, Raghistan, Yawan, Koran o Minjan, Yamgan, Darwaz Bala, Darwaz Payin, Kufab, Shiki, Wakhan, Zebak, Arghanj Khwah, Eshkashim, Shighnan districts of Badakhshan province were the most food insecure districts with 30% to 45% food insecure households, corresponds to 120 293 people in emergency situation (IPC phase 4).
  
  
• Badakhshan was the most vulnerable province in terms of food insecurity including 5 clusters (14 districts) classified in emergency situation (IPC Phase 4) due to limited food availability in the market, poor access and utilization of food, displacement due to conflicts and remoteness of some districts especially in Darwaz, 3 districts that have no road connection from Afghanistan. Other causes are the road blockage in 12 districts of Badakhshan province for up to 6 months due to heavy snow, mountainous landscape and bad road conditions.
  
  
• The Kunduz province was partially under control of government last year with high conflict and insecurity rate, which caused displacement of 39000 individuals to centre of Kunduz and neighbouring provinces.
  
  
• Residents of Takhar have suffered shortages of water for irrigation where bad road conditions also contributed challenging food availability. Insecurity in some districts of this province caused displacement of 8100 individuals.
  
  
• On-going conflicts, natural disasters, decreased level of water, limited market functionality, remoteness of some areas in this region are the major contributing factors which caused displacement, unemployment, depletion of livelihood assets and led people to engage in irreversible coping strategies.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY AND DECISION MAKERS

• Ministry of Agriculture, irrigation and livestock is the pioneer in the IPC process in Afghanistan; it is recommended that MAIL should take leading role in the publication of IPC analysis to other food security players in the country.
• Northeast region and particularly Badakhshan with 14 districts in IPC Phase 4; are vast provinces with many remote and inaccessible districts (both due to mountainous landscape and/or security). Majority of the humanitarian organizations (both UN agencies and NGOs) are working around the provincial capitals or in districts that are easily accessible and have less security and/or geographical constraints. Therefore, it is highly important to give more focus to the causes of food insecurity in remote and hard-to-access areas in order to decrease the vulnerability and food insecurity of people living in those areas.
• Considering the chronic food insecurity reaching emergency threshold each year in Badakhshan, needs government attention to tackle the root causes of food insecurity and to implement development activities, which are needed to take people out of poverty and chronic food insecurity.
• Based on MAIL data in 2017, Badakhshan and Takhar provinces suffered poor production of wheat. In years of poor production, without commercial imports and food aid, food prices have increased significantly and a majority of people in Badakhshan would not be able to afford the high food prices. In other words, most of the people benefit from affordable food prices. Otherwise, their food security situation deteriorates immediately which leads to increased malnutrition especially among children and pregnant and lactating women. These factors require immediate attention of government and humanitarian organizations, specifically for the upcoming lean season.
• Low food production, limited access to fruits and vegetables, improper practices in food preparation, lack of appropriate cooking utensils, limited access to WASH and health facilities, illiteracy, limited access to immunization services, unsafe sources of drinking water and diseases are the most significant factors of poor utilization in North-eastern province. Since overcoming these issues are beyond the capacity of local people due to poor economic condition, they require multi-sectoral efforts, high budget allocation and attention to meet the immediate to mid-term need. However, food security actors should assist people by doing more activities of DRR, asset creation, supplementary feedings, distribution of blended food, and through food fortification, in order to improve food security, strengthen resilience and prevent high prevalence of SAM and MAM.
• But the emergency assistance for the sever food insecure population classified in phase 3 or higher, urgent actions are required to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps and reduce acute malnutrition in each of the concerned areas.
• Shelter, access to improved water source and sanitation facilities is a concern for returnees and IDPs and part of the permanent resident households to be taken care of.
• Except Takhar province, the other three provinces of Northeast region are lacking updated information about nutrition status, therefore conducting SMART nutrition surveys are essential to highlight the situation of the people and address the issue more appropriately.
• Considering the Emergency situation (Phase 4) in 14 districts of Badakhshan province and high number of districts with crises situation (Phase 3) in northeast region; Afghanistan Food Security Steering Committee and the national Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) should conduct a verification assessment to the areas of concern, in order, to find out the main causes of concern and indicate proper solutions to overcome the issue. Partners on the ground have committed to support the verification team with administrative, logistic and/or programme related needs.

NEXT STEPS FOR ANALYSIS, MONITORING AND UPDATES

• The Ministry of Agriculture and its core partners needs to monitor the situation very closely for the upcoming drought alerts.
• In order to reflect the situation of the upcoming 4 months, the IPC TWG and the IPC regional technical working group members should proceed with analyzing the projection of the situation.
• Lack of nutrition data for such type of assessment and IPC analysis at district level was a major concern; to strengthen the process, nutrition cluster members would appreciate to have nutrition data for similar upcoming events.
• To differentiate the chronic and acute causes of food insecurity in north east region of the country, its highly recommended to roll out the IPC Chronic Food Insecurity classification in 2018 to inform humanitarian and development programmes on time.