Tajikistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation December 2015 - March 2016
RELEASE DATE
01.12.2015
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.12.2015 > 31.03.2016

Key
results


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


Overall, the food security situation was analyzed in 13 livelihood zones for December 2015-March 2016 and 12 percent of rural population is classified in Phase 3- Crisis, with food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition, in other words, this segment of the population is marginally able to meet minimum food needs. 38 percent of people are classified in Phase 2- Stressed, with minimally adequate food consumption, but unable to afford essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies. 50 percent of the population is classified in Phase 1- Minimal, where majority of households meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in unsustainable strategies to access food and generate income.

In general, the food security status of analyzed zones has deteriorated in the reporting months compared to the previous year. Remittances played a major role in determining livelihood of the households and became the main source of income to meet their daily basic needs. The FSMS results show that 86 percent of the remittances received are used by households to purchase food. Rural households with depleted food reserves and inadequate food consumption (quantity and quality) are extremely vulnerable. This situation is exacerbated when other sources of income, apart from remittances, are non-existent. Furthermore, those residing in remote areas, 100s of kilometers away from the centers, with difficult access to markets are particularly vulnerable during the lean season.

The indicator of the wellbeing has been deteriorating as a result of a decrease in expenditure on food and healthcare in order to pay for other basic needs in December 2015. Subjective wellbeing around December 2015 was also negatively affected by a change in the amount and frequency of remittances. According to World Bank report “Listening to Tajikistan” wellbeing of the households surveyed in May 2016 has improved, of which 67 percent of respondents said that they are able to buy enough food. Several shocks, particularly high food prices, lack of drinking and irrigation water in many areas, unavailability or high cost of fertilizers, and animal diseases, have contributed to acute food insecurity (stressed or crisis) for thousands of people. Higher wheat flour prices further exacerbated the challenging situation, making food accessibility difficult for the poorest of the households who rely on local markets to fulfill the larger proportion of their food needs during the lean period.

Food accessed by population in some areas is inadequately utilized due to limited access of households to clean water, combined with poor cooking practices and substandard household health environment. In these areas, households use traditional means for sanitation (open pit) and cooking fuel (firewood), drink and prepare food collected from unprotected water sources. Physical utilization of food is also inadequate in parts of the analyzed areas as evidence shows low access to drinking water, precarious household health environment, and poor feeding practices.

The food insecure groups with low food consumption, poor dietary diversity and high food expenditure frequently use coping strategies. They are mainly located in remote areas with inaccessible markets. These are areas with high proportion of migrant workers and where the population is mainly engaged in agricultural production but have limited access to irrigation water, fertile land, quality seeds and fertilizers.

Food security outlook for the next 6 months (March - Sep 2015)

The overall food security situation in most parts of the country is expected to stay stressed during the lean season. Food availability and access to food is expected to improve slightly after the lean season, leading to good prospects for agricultural crops, cereals, fruits and vegetables. Many households, particularly those dependent on remittances, will have to use additional coping strategies, and seek other opportunities or sources of income to make ends meet.

Households’ expenditures have already shown some changes mainly due to the on-going economic crisis, reflected through increased food and health care expenditures of the total nonfood expenditures. In the coming months, expenditure on food is expected to remain high. The projected decline in GDP growth is expected to slow poverty reduction through 2016. Purchasing power of households is expected to slightly improve during the harvesting season, as a result of increased food production and reduced prices of locally produced foods.

The value of remittances from Tajik migrant workers in the Russian Federation will likely remain below the average throughout the outlook period. A possible decrease in number of labor migrants is imminent given the re-entry bans and stricter regulation. Despite difficulties, labour migrants will continue traveling to Russia and many of them will sell their productive assets or undertake loans to be able to cover the expenses associated with fulfilling requirements to legally work in Russia. As a result, initial earnings of many labour migrants are expected to be used to repay the debts. During summer and fall seasons, alternative sources of food and income might be available for households, including construction work, casual labor, particularly in regional and district centers.

Prices for imported food commodities, including imported wheat flour from Kazakhstan are expected to increase in the coming months due to decline of the value of the TJS and seasonal high prices for wheat flour until September-November. The prices for staple food products may also rise, until early harvesting in some areas, which is expected in June-July. Starting from July, prices for the domestic food products might probably reduce due to the summer season and availability of the fodder for the animals. The prices for other staple food may also rise, until the harvesting season.

There is a possibility of natural disasters occurring in some villages including landslides, hailstorms, mudflows and locust infestation in May-July. Increased water level in the rivers might lead to erosion of riverbanks and salinization of soil in arable areas. This may result in poor agricultural productivity and further contribute to rising food prices. The areas that are the most vulnerable in terms of geographical location, are also unpredictable in terms of risk of natural hazards. The probability of natural disasters is very high, which might lead to road closures and impede transportation, further decreasing access and availability of food.

Fewer sowing of cereals and vegetables is planned in the public sector and dekhkan farms in 2016 compared to 2015, in some Livelihood zones. Generally, the production of cereals and vegetables in 2016, is expected to be less in some districts.


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